|
海东翻译公司关键字：The theory is still assumed that the Keynesian absolute income supplements and amendments. Friedman will be income into permanent income (can be anticipated, long-term, stable income, that is available lifetime income on average, such as payroll, rent, interest and other income) and temporary income (non-continuous , with a chance of income), the corresponding consumption into durable consumption (with recurrent nature of consumer spending) and the temporary consumption (non-recurrent nature of consumption), the core point is: consumer spending and not primarily by the current period income determination, but the decision by the permanent income; consumer durable consumption and permanent income is fixed ratio between the Cp, t = k Yp, t which Cp, t for the sustainable consumption; Yp, t for the permanent income; k is the coefficient, by the interest rate, consumer preferences, property, and other factors. Accordingly, the establishment of the consumption function is:C = a + b Yp, t + cYt, t -------------------- (5)Of (5) for the double logarithmic transformation, to eliminate the C on the Y non-linear effects related to the return, are:
lnC = a + blnYp, t + clnYt, t ------------------------ (6)Where, C is consumption (including consumption of durable consumption and temporary); a constant term; b for the permanent income elasticity; c as a temporary income elasticity; Yt, t is a temporary income.
The theory and the previous theory is different: it uses to analyze people's long-term income people of current changes in consumer spending. Thus, resulting in a defect of the theory is: too much emphasis on consumer decision-making by the long-term revenue impact of ignoring the cyclical changes in consumer spending analysis of the causes.
According to this assumption, we have the permanent income of Chinese residents with temporary income estimate, to test their degree of effect on consumption in order to verify: whether China's consumption depends on permanent income? If so, the extent of consumption by the lasting impact of income?Current statistics can not find a direct and permanent income, temporary income corresponding to the actual statistics. And general method for estimating the third-order moving average method of Friedman [1], the formula is:
Yp, t = (Yt + Yt-1 + Yt-2) / 3 -----------------( 7)Yt, t = Yt-Yp, t --------------------------( 8)Which, Yp, t to period t permanent income, Yt, t temporary income for the period t; Yt income for the period t, Yt-1 to period t-1 income, Yt-2 to t-2 period income, they are through the "China Statistical Yearbook," the available data, respectively, the disposable income of urban residents and rural residents per capita net income.
Here, we use this method to the durability of Chinese urban and rural residents income and temporary income for the estimates, as shown in Table 3:
Table 3: China's urban and rural residents income and temporary income persistence estimates Unit: YuanYear estimates of the rural town of the year estimates the rural town of estimates estimatesPermanent income being temporarily permanent income income income income lasting temporary temporary permanent income income income
|