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定西翻译公司关键字： "From the second half of last year, the international scale of 'hot money' reason for the influx of Chinese, mainly due to the expected impact of RMB appreciation, and, with the United States, Japan and other countries continue to put pressure on RMB appreciation, with the media speculation, expectations of RMB appreciation on the increasingly strong, thus speeding up the flow. "Chen star of the" Beijing Review "analysis.
According to "The Wall Street Journal" reported that, out of the strong appreciation of the renminbi is expected to, many local retail investors have opened in the United States in RMB-denominated savings account. According to China's 21st Century Economic Report, in the last six months, the Hong Kong H shares rose more than 50%. Industry insiders believe that one important reason is that the market expected the yuan in the next 15 to 20 months will be between the value of 20%.
"In China, the influx of 'hot money' in addition to including the international speculative capital, there is also an important 'force', that is the beginning of flight capital in previous years 'sneak' in China." Chen star said.
Chen star that the reversal of the yuan and the dollar interest rate is "hot money" pour into China's another important reason. A few years ago, the RMB interest rate below the long-term U.S. interest rates, but after 2002, the U.S. dollar continue to cut interest rates, making the dollar more than RMB interest rate. Spreads to seek greater returns, investors began to "short the dollar, buy the yuan."
For these "hot money" sources and destination, Chen star that "it is very clear." Because "if the existing system to identify these 'hot money' in context, to explain China's current foreign exchange management system vulnerability is too much from another level, that is, foreign exchange management system for further improvement, can not be completely to avoid 'hot money' into a variety of covert means. "
Star, said Chen, a variety of comprehensive analysis of industry experts to determine the current "hot money" mainly through underground banks, stock market, currency or fake investments, fake form of joint ventures into China.
"Hot money" to put pressure on RMB appreciation?China now adopts a dollar a "hook" of the exchange rate policy, imposition of foreign exchange "mandatory foreign exchange settlement system", that is corporate foreign exchange funds held by the central bank must sell, import businesses or residents with foreign exchange designated banks are required to purchase . If the excessive supply of foreign exchange on the foreign exchange market, in order to maintain the stability of the U.S. dollar, the central bank must be "full acquisition." Central Bank for the acquisition of foreign exchange funds invested is known as "foreign exchange." This is the central bank base money of the main channel.
With the "hot money" into China large-scale, the central bank put this money will follow the basic all the way up. According to the National Bureau of Statistics figures, as of the end of July this year, China's broad money supply (M2) stood at 20.62 trillion yuan, up 20.7 percent, the highest growth rate since 1998. Among them, the foreign exchange accounts put the proportion of broad money supply sharply. According to Wang introduced in 2001, this proportion is only 38% in 2002 rising to 50%, calculated in accordance with the case of the first half of this year, this year will be as high as 63%.
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